High On Poker

Here’s a quick synopsis of the hand featured in You Decide #75: I held 33 in MP and raised preflop 3x the BB to 90 (15/30 blinds, 1265 stack). The big blind, Itak, raises 120 on top, and I call. The flop is 366. It checks to me and I bet 240, Itak raises to 660 and I flat call leaving me less than 400 behind. The turn is a third 6 and he puts me all-in with a bet. I fold.

Most people questions the play preflop, and in hindsight, I can see how that may be the largest mistake of the hand. Stealing is unnecessary for the 45 chip pot and raises 3x the BB with 33 in MP is asking for trouble in a lot of ways. Obviously, superior hands will have me dominated, and with (let’s say) 6 players left to act behind me, rough math dictates that there was a 33% chance that a player had a better pocket pair and had yet to act. The general rule is take the amount of players left to act and the amount of superior pairs, multiply them and divide by 2. So, 6 players left to act and 11 better pairs (44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA) = 66 / 2 = 33%. (thanks for the math, Phil Gordon).

So, really, there was no reason to raise there. Once I am re-raised 120 on top, some players noted that it was a poor call. On this account, I am not so sure. The pot is now 315 and my opponent had me covered, so I could still win another 1055 total (not including my 120 call). I usually like to get 10:1 on my set farming, so actually, this is a bit short, but since I am in position, I may be able to pick up the pot without hitting my set. For instance, I could potentially pick up a pot with an Ace-high or AKx flop if my opponent has a pocket pair that doesn’t hit a set. So, while this is not maybe the best call, I feel it is somewhat justified because of implied pot odds, position, and the possibility that I can win without the best hand.  It doesn’t hurt that I have enough chips and the blinds are low enough that I could call preflop and fold postflop if I miss.

On the flop, no one seems to mind my initial bet, but some people questioned why I didn’t re-shove after my opponent re-raised. To be frank, I didn’t see the difference at the time. I figured that we were getting all of the money into the pot, no matter what the next card was (boy was I wrong). But, assuming that to be true (which is logical, since the pot was now 1600+ and I had less than 400 behind), I figured a re-raise would obviously indicate strength on the flop, whereas a call would induce a push on the turn no matter what, and in the end, I’d get all-in without the risk of scaring away my opponent. Ok, maybe this was a bit of the ole fancy play, but I just figured no reason to push it when it was going to end up in an all-in anyway.

In hindsight, I really like my call here, but not for the reasons I used at the time. I like it because of what actually happened. I think it is a safe assumption that we were both ready to call all-in on the flop if either of us had pushed. I also think it is safe to assume that my call really was going to induce a push in most scenarios from the out of position player on the turn. So, by flat calling, I left myself with options while leaving my opponent with none. Granted, it was very unlikely that another 6 was going come, and any other card would’ve ended up with me all-in. But at least I got to see that info before I had to act. I avoided a bustout-by-suckout by simply calling, seeing the obvious suckout and running.

Finally, some people thought that even with all of the precursor, I still should have called the all-in on the turn because $5 SNG players are terrible. Other people noted the lack of skill of my opponents as a reason to push on the turn, although I don’t think that holds much water, since their lack of skill also argues for my call, since a bad player is going to get all the money in on the turn no matter what.

Well, last night, I played one more round of 4 SNGs (2 bustouts, one 1st, one 2nd, for a $13 profit or so on $22 invested). And you know what? The players did suck. They were making all kinds of ridiculous plays and calls. So, whereas first I was going to disagree with the commentors who noted the poor level of play, I now actually agree. I may be giving some of these opponents too much credit.

Even so, I still think that the fold on the turn was warranted. Even the worst player is not raising out of position preflop and then check-raising the flop with AK or an unpaired hand. At least that’s how I see it.

Thanks for all of the comments.

Until next time, make mine poker!