Hey folks. It’s been a while since I’ve dusted off the ole You Decide, but there comes times when even I need the assistance of the unwashed masses.
This hand is from a $20 tournament on Stars. Blinds were at 60/120, with a 15 ante. I think it may’ve been a big ante tournament. I began the hand with 10,644, and Q
A in UTG+1. It folded to me and I made my standard 3x raise to 360. It then folded around to the Button (~14,500) and the SB (~5,700), who both call.
The three of us see a flop: 8
8
A. The pot is over 1300.
The SB checked and I bet out 840. The Button flat calls. The SB folded.
The turn is a K. The pot is slightly over 3k. I bet 1,560, leaving me about 7k behind. The button then pushed all-in, which had me covered. I folded.
At the time, I figured I was probably ahead on the flop. The turned King then ruins my kicker (Queen), which means its a chopped pot against any Ace. In that scenario, absent a rivered Queen, I was calling 7k for a tie and about 3k back, at best. I was also gambling that my opponent did not have a flush draw (clubs or hearts) or an unlikely hand like A8, 88 or AK (given these circumstances).
I know what the actual result was. He showed. But before I announce it here, I’d like your thoughts.
Was that a bad fold? Was there a better way to play the hand?
Until next time, make mine poker!
April 19th, 2010 - 11:35 am
Regardless of the show, it is a pretty good example of why Negreanu promotes small pot poker.
Does AQs from early position always warrant standard 3x? I know you know full well how to take advantage of late position. I’m not sure about the early part. To me that looks like a hand to stack people with that plays rather well in a family type pot.
I’m often surprised watching TV just how willing pro’s are at checking TPTK to avoid such decisions. Then, another’s bet/steal can make them extra money or their modest bet on turn or river with garbage cards make get them a better payday than the big continuation bet lacking real information. In this hand, you never really knew where you stood. Often, it is wrong to let people get free cards but not always if you’ve limited the pot size in the process. Your opponent is more prone to mistakes than you are in these circumstances and will probably value bet if he does have you beat.
I’d call the above hand, “Jordan on Steroids”
April 19th, 2010 - 11:39 am
Considering the antes, your aq probably merited more than 3X to push off any marginal hands, but assuming this was a hand he would’ve called regardless, probably best to disregard that.
I think your only chance to take down this pot was on the flop by dropping more than 840. A bet of 1000-1100 on the flop would have given you a better idea of where you were at, instead of losing 2400 total by the turn. Obviously your fold equity was better at the flop. A larger bet on the flop would have probably pushed out an ace with a lower kicker or another high pair, and potentially a flush draw. A larger bet would probably stimulate a push anyway if he has 8x. If he still flat calls on the turn, you’re probably ahead or in worst case scenario he has you beat and he’s extracting for value. Your M is less than 10 here, so I think I would have just saw where I was at at the flop and avoided any aggression on an odd-textured board, saving me roughly 1000 chips More often than not you are going to CBet here with A88 and get folds, why go further when your chips are valuable? In a cash game I’d vary that response, but at this stage in the tournament you have time to wait for another shot.
April 19th, 2010 - 11:46 am
Turn betsizing invites villain to jam and blow you off a chop/meh Ace. Of course, he’ll do that with a monster too. I wouldn’t discount AK so quickly either as people love to flat it deep with position.
Not sure you can lead both the flop and turn here OOP without having to make some kind of soulread herocall, and if villain is any good, he knows he’s got you in a tough spot as played. Probably a good but reluctant fold.
April 19th, 2010 - 12:36 pm
Ken, I think you are on to something. My error may have been controlling the size of the pot and that started pre-flop. Perhaps a limp is better here, and then on the flop, I can continue to keep the pot small, while betting out and taking control. If I miss the flop, then I’m out of the hand for cheap.
That said, I don’t like the idea of going too passive post-flop. I either need to bet the flop and check the turn or check-raise the flop. I don’t like the idea of checking there with a flush draw out there and a good hand. I will have no info if I just check-call.
Interesting ideas, though, that I need to incorporate. I will take another look at my OOP play too. Thanks.
April 19th, 2010 - 12:44 pm
I think there may be some flaw in your logic; either that, or maybe I am misunderstanding.
I don’t like the idea of a bigger raise preflop, since I am not just looking to steal blinds. As Ken says, this is a good multi-way pot hand. I want weaker Aces to feel invited to the party, so raising large only eliminates the players I dominate and perhaps some small pairs (but perhaps not).
I also don’t understand how a bigger flop bet (by about 200) would’ve told me anything new. This part I just don’t understand. I think the 840 vs. 1000 or 1100 is negligible. I don’t see the benefit of a larger bet. It just exposes me more.
Change that. I see the argument that a larger bet may induce a push, in which case I fold and save my money from the turn bet. But I still don’t think this is 100% true. Any monster will be happy to flat call and appear to be drawing. Any 8 pushes and I lose some money, but that’d happen at 840 also, if he is pushing to avoid the flush draw.
Also, I think your M calculation is off, but I’m too stupid to check that math. But I cannot see how almost 100BB turns into an M of less than 10.
By the turn, I felt I needed to bet to get value from a drawing hand. The re-raise told me that I was either tied, behind, or tied against a hand that could draw out on me. If I just check, I face a bet for sure. Now what? Do I call and get myself in deeper when a flush card comes with absolutely no new info? I don’t know the answer, but that’s why I highlighted this hand. Tricky stuff.
April 19th, 2010 - 12:44 pm
What better turn bet sizing would’ve worked? Checking would have surely invited an overaggressive response, but maybe that is preferred. I just don’t know what I’d do on the river if I check-call the turn.
April 19th, 2010 - 12:52 pm
You played this hand pretty much 100% the way I would have played it.
Except that I definitely call on the end. My opponent has done nothing to make me think he has AK, the only realistic hand I fear here, in particular since he did not reraise your late position open-raise preflop. Otherwise, lower Aces — almost all of which you chop with — and pocket pairs below Aces are the most likely outcomes, and the only hand I realistically fear here given the preflop action is a hand that contains one of the two remaining 8s in the deck, which is probably only A8, maybe K8s, 98s, 87s and maybe a couple of suited semi-connectors as well. Seems to me very very likely that you are chopping or are ahead and I would not want to lay down given how wide my range seems to be since it looks like I tried to steal preflop and might not have anything strong at all.
Given the way you played this hand, I would expect any Ace or many pocket pairs to play the hand exactly as your opponent did.
April 19th, 2010 - 1:12 pm
I misread your stack number so my M was wrong. I thought it said 1450.
As for my ‘negligible’ difference in the flop bet, it would probably depend on where I saw this player on the button. If he’s playing 14/10/3 or something like that I’d definitely be more likely to keep the pot smaller….if he’s a bit wilder like 30/10 or something then I would want to test him with a higher CBet like I mentioned.
Either way, since he has you covered and he pushed with that board, you really have no choice but to fold.
April 19th, 2010 - 1:36 pm
This is getting interesting. Truth be told. I’d very likely be a donk like Hoy with a similar read. And, I really don’t have a problem with aggression or busting. Although, I do prefer to see folks like Justin at some tables but my heart wouldn’t take it with all of them.
I’d like him on my right but I not unhappy with him to my left. I have to structure too much to hope for one like him at my every table.
It becomes a combination of implied odds hands and premium hands. The idea is to stack them while they do the heavy lifting. It is also where I might bluff with the right ups and the thought they could do that big laydown or where I own a bunch of outs.
I’m definitely not talking patsy here. But, I’m at least trying to move to levels higher than you normally can play. Both luck and skill have to move upward. It is fun for a while but fatiguing as a steady diet.
Every type of play comes with strengths and weaknesses. The real trick is picking the one that plays on that table rather than codifying a strategy in advance. J seems to relish a certain style and that adds risk.
P.S. Good possibility, Hoy, that he had two pair or a set of K’s. But, we’ve all paid that off in situations with your thinking being close but not close enough. His image of J might have made him wonder if his KK wasn’t good. So, I do like the set of Kings.
April 19th, 2010 - 2:04 pm
Well, turn bet size really depends on what you want to accomplish, whether you want to show villain you’re committed or not and how you want him to respond.
The main thing is, leading 1/2 pot with 7K behind appears to leave you room to fold to a jam and preserve a workable stack. If that’s what you want villain to think, and how you think he’ll interpret the lead, then it’s a good bet size to snap off a shove.
April 19th, 2010 - 2:12 pm
The only thing that makes me think a fold is good is he shoves after you’ve shown some interest in the hand. I think he wanted a call there is the way I took it.
Just a thought. I don’t mind a call here either.
April 19th, 2010 - 2:20 pm
And as to what you said about how to proceed…
I am with you 100%. You don’t want it to draw out on you. OTOH, your bet of the flop would be best, IMO; and is going to make the better hand try to go for value and there is still less risk for you. That is the nice part of the low ball game. People tend toward value and that saves chips in such situation where they have you cold — risk:reward reverts to you.
The really interesting holding would have been 87D. You would have killed him if the diamonds had hit and it a hand he might figure getting called on the flop by the flush draw and waited (called) until the odds favored him more. That one would leave most of us talking to ourselves.
April 19th, 2010 - 3:28 pm
First off, I see that when I reply to a comment, it comes up in the order in which my reply was made, so for the future, I will use names when responding to a specific comment.
Second, I really REALLY want to spill the beans already about what he had, since he showed, but I want to wait a bit longer in case some overnight readers want to comment. I’ll post the result of the hand tomorrow.
April 19th, 2010 - 8:18 pm
He was bluffing.
April 20th, 2010 - 12:08 pm
Remember the basement game?
*sniff*