High On Poker

If you haven’t reviewed the You Decide #73 post, you may want to start there.

So yesterday, I posted a hand for feedback and got some great responses. Here is a quick synopsis of the hand.

I had 10k in chips with blinds/antes of 60/120/15. With Q A, I raised from UTG+1 to 360 and got calls from the Button (14k) and the SB (6k). The flop was  8 8 A, and I bet out 840 into the 1300 or so pot, getting a call from the Button only. The turn was a K. I bet 1560 into the now ~3k pot and my opponent pushed all-in. I reluctantly folded.

What did my opponent have? A 5.

Here is my post-game analysis. Preflop, I do not mind my standard raise. In fact, it was a bit smaller than usual, if anything, because there were antes in effect. The systematic 3x BB raise is fine by me. It reduces any reads from my opponents preflop, as long as I do it consistently. Plus, I want to invite competition from lesser Aces (so raising higher is no good) and I want to induce raises from hands that dominate me (also arguing that a larger preflop raise is bad). On the flipside, I could have just limped here, and it would have been a fine play; but on the other hand, why not build a pot. AQd is a pretty good hand, so I want to build something worth taking.

Once the flop comes, I figure I must be ahead. I want to induce calls at this point. I’m mildly concerned about the club flush draw, but its easy to get away from my hand if another club hits and I get hit up with a raise or an open bet from one of my now-passive opponents. If my opponents have nothing, then 840 or 10,000 is all the same. If my opponents have a weaker Ace, then an 840 is more likely to get a call than a pot-sized 1300 bet, so I don’t like a larger bet in that circumstance. 840 vs. 1300 won’t matter either if my opponent has me beat. In fact, 840 is more likely to induce a raise than a pot-sized bet (in my estimation), so for info-gathering purposes, I don’t think betting higher is smart.

On the other hand, I should have bet less on the flop, like 560 or so. In that scenario, the completely missed hands fold, the weaker Aces likely call, the flush draws call, and the dominating hands either call or raise. I get the same results from the 840 bet, with less risk (less reward too, but I think on this flop, the risk of overcommiting chips outweighs the reward of an extra 300 in profit on the flop).

Once the turn came, I was faced with an awkward situation. I have a good hand, but any lesser Ace has caught up with me, an 8 is still ahead, and there are two scary flush draws. I don’t like checking here for a few reasons. Defensively speaking, if I check, my opponent is likely to bet out with any two cards and then I have no information at all when I have to decide to call blind (and pray a scare card does not come) or fold.  Offensively speaking, if he has a lesser pocket pair, my 1500 bet will win the pot, which is large enough to be worth it outright. If he has a lesser Ace, he is likely calling, which is fine. If he has a flush draw, he also is likely calling for one more card or folding because I’ve priced him out, both of which is fine since I’m getting my money in ahead (on a related note, if I check here to a flush draw and give them a free card and they miss, I get nothing more from them, so I wanted value from bare draws). If he has me dominated, though, this would be the time to push for my opponent, allowing my escape.

Someone in the comments noted that I left enough chips to fold and that my opponent may have picked up on that fact. I think this is giving the average online player too much credit. It can and will happen that a player will make that read. However, by that same token, my bet could be seen as a sign that I am hoping to take this hand to the mat.

Once I get re-raised all-in, though, I faced a really tough situation. I could’ve been behind the whole time. I could’ve been dominating with a large Ace and was now tied. I could be up against a naked flush draw (although unlikely, given the size of the re-raise). But I could not have been against a hand that was far behind.

I took my time and realized that I could not call an all-in and pray that (a) he is on a flush draw and (b) he was going to miss it. I sincerely feared that we had tied, except he had re-draws. I literally worked out the math thusly: I would have to call my 7k stack off to win potentially 3k (the pot was 3k, so I would get 1.5k of that, and my bet was 1.5k, so I’d get that back in the chop). That’s terrible odds, so I just couldn’t accept it. I had to figure I was tied at best, likely drawing dead or close to it (three Queens). So, I folded and he showed.

In hindsight, I am very happy with my last play, but perhaps there is a lot of room to tweak everything before then. Preflop, a min-raise may’ve been nice to build a pot but invite in more players on a drawing hand like AQd. On the flop, perhaps I could’ve won the hand with a sufficiently higher raise, but I actually think the proper course of action in hindsight was to bet smaller, like 560, to induce a raise from dominating hands and make it clear that my opponent did not have an 8. On the flop, once the flushes missed, I still think I have to bet out, but with the smaller flop bet, I could’ve made a smaller turn bet. Given where I was in the hand at that point, I think a smaller bet was also in order, since I realized the potential pitfalls of the hand. I was really hoping to induce a call from a drawer and a re-raise from a dominating hand, and it worker…but if I bet smaller, it would have also worked and saved me some money in the event of the re-raise. A bet of 960 or so would probably be preferrable. The fold, however, I support 100%.

I guess the answer is more small-ball, at least with this hand. No need to force the action when there are risks out there. No need to fight for dominance in every pot if nuance is needed.

Until next time, make mine poker!