Comments on: You Decide #70 Revisited

By: HighOnPoker

HighOnPoker — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:50:40 +0000

Ok, ok. I'll just eat some humble pie on this one. I especially like the point about the betting pattern. I can see how a flat call on the flop followed by an open pot sized bet on the turn could scream nut straight. Thanks, guys, for the input and for setting me straight.

By: BWoP

BWoP — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:21:18 +0000

Drizz beat me to the punch about what the general betting line is when you flop a straight.

Another thing that I'm not sure if anyone mentioned was how much of villain's stack was committed when he bet the turn. You said he started with about 4,500. Pre-flop = 90, flop = 450, turn = 1,350. So that's 1,890 of his 4,500 stack (or roughly 40%). Unless he has total air (seems unlikely), he's probably not going anywhere. So you are either getting a fold from a complete bluff or you are getting a call from a hand that probably has you in pretty bad shape by the turn (unless he has something like a crappy non-aces over-pair with none of your club outs - which would put you at about a coin flip).

You can find much better spots.

(I haven't tested the crub theory for omaha . . .)

By: Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:08:50 +0000

What Drizz said. It's a lot more likely than most people realize given this exact scenario. 9 out of 10 is about right in my experience as well.

By: Drizztdj

Drizztdj — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:30:45 +0000

I still disagree, though, that if five players enter a pot and three cards in a row flop with two flush cards, and a player calls a pot bet, that player must have the nut straight.

9 out of 10 times that's exactly what they will have. Do you think everyone in is playing broadway cards only? 5 people in the pot, I'd rather have 6-7-8-9 in my hand than A-K-Q-J since most of those cards are probably out of the deck and won't hit the board.

5 players and there's a mid-straight on the board? Easy turn fold, or call the turn bet (since you can afford it) with every intention on pushing the river should the board pair or hit your flush of course.

Every beginning PLO book out there will tell a person to flat the flop, push on the turn if the board doesn't pair/put a flush out there with a flopped straight.

If your opponent has a clue, fold.

By: HighOnPoker

HighOnPoker — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:15:02 +0000

Fair enough, Hoy. I didn't factor in the amount of players. I think your analysis stands anyway, even if you open up his range to include sets, weaker straights and strong hands with flush redraws. I still disagree, though, that if five players enter a pot and three cards in a row flop with two flush cards, and a player calls a pot bet, that player must have the nut straight.

By: Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:29:08 +0000

Keep in mind that a crucial part of my explanation here is that this was a 5-way pot. In PLO in a five-way pot that hasn't been raised and reraised preflop, you're going to run into precisely 78 there after a flop call far more often than I think you realize. If it was just one player you're up against there, and that guy had raised it up preflop as it is, then the odds of him holding exactly 78 drop dramatically I think. But five ways, really early on in a low limit PLO tournament, online no less? That's exactly 78 or 73 maybe 85, 90% of the time in my experience.