High On Poker

I have a pretty bad poker hangover this morning, courtesy of the OE yesterday. Nope, not the OE of the 40oz variety, but OE of the poker variety, Limit Omaha 8 or Better and Limit Stud 8 or Better. Frankly, I wish it were from the OE.

The games in question were played at the Wall Street Game. The cast of characters included host Jamie, IHO Dawn, KJ, Man-of-Many-Nicknames Pauly, Johnny Darko, Wendy, and a newer player whose name I sadly cannot remember. We even had a dedicated dealer.

By the end of the night, I was down $90, which was actually an improvement from my $185 in losses just a little while prior. My losses probably came down to two things: (1) natural variance, and (2) playing too many hands.

It’s all too easy for a losing player to blame variance, and I will immediately admit that variance was not the only reason for my losses, but it played its part. Once I got a handle on the way players were playing (could you believe that I started out too cautious!?), I then suffered a string of suckouts. Two pair lost to a lower two pair when the river in O8 brought their full house (two outs, naturally). Players hit their 2-card set playing pocket Kings in O8 after I flop yet again another top two pair. Players hit their 8-card straight after calling the flop with nothing but pocket jacks, turning the straight draw (which gave me the lesser straight) and rivering the four card out for thier miracle straight.

But, really, that’s the nature of the game, particularly at the WSG. It’s a limit game played, in this case, by no limit players, in a friendly environment, so people are more willing to draw to hands or play weaker hands, thereby sucking out.

I don’t blame those people either, because if you are a seasoned O8 player, you probably already know what I did wrong. The answer is Two Pair. I was playing most hands, at least to the flop, once I got a handle on the fact that a lot of the players were doing the same. I was hoping to flop big and get paid, but invariably, I was only flopping strong but vulnerable hands. As a result, I played those strong but vulnerable hands to the river, even when the river was a doom card (with the action in play and the odd hand ranges, it was probably still worth calling the river bet). I had adjusted my game to play more hands with the thought that I would get paid off if/when I hit, but the proper strategy, in hindsight, was to tighten up and make my money in few pots with monster hands.

Frankly, I didn’t get any monster hands, but at least I would have potentially saved some money by playing less hands.

Poker is all a work in progress, though, so I try not to cry into my breakfast sandwich. Instead, I hope to absorb the lesson inherent in my loss and move forward. No live poker is on the horizon, but I’ll squeeze it in somewhere.

I had my favorite line of the night last night, and I hope it shows up on one of Dawn’s blogs. We were discussing a player who was banned from the WSG for being a prick and accusing peope of cheating. The first time he was invited, he made a big fuss over our prop bets. We were betting on ranks to come out on the flop. For example, someone chose a 3, so if a 3 flopped out, the other players would pay him/her $1 (or $2 if it were the middle card on the flop). The dickhead of a player said that it was wrong for us to call out “3 on the flop!” because, as he explained it, if he had pocket 3s, announcing the flopped 3 might let everyone know that he hit his set (I kid you not). When he became a fussy baby over it and wouldn’t budge, even in the face of the “floor staff” (host Jamie) I told him that he knew where the door was, and that he could leave at any time. Yeah, I’m a tough guy.

So, while chatting about the dickhead, the issue of a physical confrontation came up. I replied:

“I had a lot of pent up aggression. But I do most of my fighting with my mouth………I’m a biter.” Get it! Ah, screw you. It was funny at the game.

Eventually, I was down to about $15 or less in chips, while still firmly entrenched in a round of O8. I had enough and wifey Kim was waiting for me at home so I announced to the table that I was blind raising and trying to get all-in. I blind raised, got several callers, and then saw a three low-card flop. I put out my blind bet and then checked my cards. 2727, the Omahammer! I had already hit a low hand, but I had to assume that someone had A2 or even 25 or whatever other combos had my 27 beat on the 8-high board. Still, I had enough to so I kept on raising until three players saw the river and reached showdown. I don’t remember what the high was, but believe me when I say that I was SHOCKED that no one had a better low. Just crazy.

I still was anxious to just “wrap it up” and since I only won 1/2 of the last pot, my stack was still around the $30 mark or less. KJ, meanwhile, was also on life support, so we agreed in front of everyone to just keep on raising until we were both all-in, blind. Literally, as the cards were dealt, KJ and I were the only two players standing up, already anticipating our action and the fact that we would both be leaving after we busted on this hand. And we were not even sitting next to each other, so it wasn’t some sort of conspiratorial thing. We were discussing everything across the freaking table. Amazingly, though, KJ and I apparently have the same super powers as my older brother and I. My older bro, Keith, and I have the ability to talk out in the open without anyone hearing us. I think it has to do with my psychic abilities to create a sound-barrier wall through telekenisis, but Keith just insists that everyone knows I talk out of my ass so no one listens anymore. As KJ and I kept raising, the three other players in the pot kept calling, apparently oblivious to the fact that we were both flying blind. The flop came down KKx, and KJ and I checked our cards, even though we were going to raise and keep raising regardless. I looked down to KQxx. By the time we were all-in, the turn and river had made a possible low, KJ was all-in in the main pot, I had a tiny side pot, and a third side pot developed. And at showdown…my KQ for three of a kind Kings, QX kicker held! KJ showed a weaker King, and everyone else mucked. What they were doing in that hand without at least a King (if not better) and no low, I have no idea.

We played another round of Stud8, in which I won a few pots. I have to give a lot of credit to Wendy in one hand, when she got Jamie and I to fold our superior hands to her Ace-high. Showing her hand was a nice touch. RESPECT!

When I left, I was happy that I somewhat recovered. I was terribly annoyed though, a reoccurring problem in my poker world. I need to refind that even keel.

As difficult as this was, I also came to another realization. Part of the problem with the WSG (for me) is the quality of the players. Even amongst the looser limit action, the quality of player is probably better than in a random casino. So, at least I can take some solace in knowing that it simply isn’t the easiest game to beat.

That, and I really need to get to a casino.

Here’s a ‘quick’ WSOP Prop Bet update, which I will probably have daily from here on out.

Fuel55- I lead the Most Cash Won bet, thanks to Johnny Chan’s 13th place finish in Event #8, the $10k Mixed Game Championship, good for $27,072. Fuel is on the board with $8,103 from Sorel Mizzi (68th place, Event 5, $1000 rebuy).

Ingoal- Ingoal leads the Most Cash Won bet thanks to Daniel Negreanu ($16,496, 22nd place, Event 5, $1000 rebuy).

UWannaBet – UWanna leds our Most FT/Bracelets bet thanks to Michael Binger (Final Table, Event 5, $1000 rebuy). He’s ahead by $3.

Allen Cunningham is still in Event 10, $2,500 OE event, with 2/3 of the field gone. Greg Raymer is in it too, but needs to win the thing to give Ingoal any headway in our most-bracelets competition.

Wish me luck.

Until next time, make mine poker!

I had a very weird couple of days of online poker. It’s been mostly frustrating, replete with tons of suck outs. I didn’t want to write about them, but since it’s my current reality, I didn’t want to ignore it either.

I’ve been multi-tabling lately, playing multiple small-to-mid field MTTs (45-180 players) along with Token SNGs to allow me to play a little higher. Because of this, I have reverted back to a very tight approach, playing mostly premium hands hard. If I accumulate chips I tend to loosen up, but that’s in later stages in tournaments.

The obvious problem with this strategy is that when you eventually suffer a suckout, you’ll likely not have accumulated enough chips to survive. For instance, I literally folded for several levels in a $10 45-person SNG, only to bust when my KK ran into QQ preflop. I try not to over-critique my opponents, but this is a spot where I may’ve folded my QQ if I were the other guy. Preflop, I raised UTG to 3x the BB. I got two callers before my eventualy executioner re-raised pot. I pushed all-in over the top and all parties folded to the re-raiser who called. Perhaps I’m not giving a complete enough picture, but as it played out, I thought it looked like I was pushing with AA. I was actually hoping for a fold, since the pot was pumped big enough and I didn’t want to face AQ or some other Ace. When he insta-called, I thought he must have AA, but when QQ flipped I had a half-second of relief, followed by the feeling that I was going to be sucked out, followed by a flopped Queen and no help for Jordo. LEMON!

I suffered another suckout when I used the same fold-until-I-get-premium-hands strategy in a Token tourney. I held 99 when I raised to 350 (pot) with blinds of 50/100 and a stack of about 1250. The button called and everyone else folded. The flop was T73, so I pushed and he called…showing T9s. LIME! I still have no idea what he was doing there, but not everyone has to play the way I play.

I suffered some more beats after that, but I didn’t take notes. While I was trying to process this all last night, though, I found a way to find a bit of inner piece. First, I reminded myself that I was only 80/20 to win, so this would happen 1 out of every five times I got all-in in that situation. 1/5 is not that small of a figure, especially when you compare it to other things, such as the chance that you flop a set (roughly 1/7.5). I am more likely to be sucked out on in that situation than I am to flop a set. Certainly, set flopping is not super common but its common enough to remind myself that, hey, suckouts are not just a part of the game, but a common part of the game.

I was still multitabling and working through this logic when I got 22 in one of my tournaments…and 22 in another tournament (one on FullTilt, one on Stars). I played both…and flopped a set in both, making money on both hands. Simultaneous pocket dueces and simultaneous sets. Wild! I took a screen shot to commemorate it, but I ask that you ignore the bottom tabs that display the excessive amount of porn I was researching at the time for my…sociology class. Sure, that’s sounds logical. My sociology class.

I had a fun hand in a token SNG last night. It really takes a common belief and flips it on its head. It’s very situation specific, but it happens enough to warrant discussion.

Generally, the rule of thumb in poker is that if you are willing to call a bet, you should make the bet. The reason is simple; it will give you two chances of winning (via fold or getting a call and winning at showdown) whereas calling only gives you once chance to win.

However, there are times when it makes more sense to check/call, rather than betting out. The key is to find instances where checking to your opponent will induce a bet from a wider range of hands, and where betting will only get a call from a very narrow, superior range of hands. Perhaps this example will help.

I was in a Tier 1 SNG of the $6.60 variety (top 4 get tokens), at the 25/50 level. I had 3,070 because I’m super awesome at poker. A player in EP called the 50 blind and the button, beavis with just under 1,400, min raised to 100 total. In the SB with KJs, I called. The BB folded. The EP player called as well.

The flop came down KTT, rainbow. I’ll admit that I am always worried about KQ or AK in situations like this. KJ can be a dangerous hand to play if you are willing to overcommit to top pair.

Since I was first to act, I opted to check. I figured that any of the dominating hands would bet out; once I see the bet, then I will determine whether I am ahead or behind.

It checks to Beavis and he bets 400. To me, this was a green flag. If Beavis had a Ten, a better King, or Aces (the only hands that beat me here), he probably would be afraid to push checking players out of the pot with his oversized 400 bet into the 350 pot. A bet of 200 or even 100 would be a lot more scary. Still, I don’t know what the EP guy has and I don’t want to overbuild the pot, so I call.

The turn is an utterly useless 4c, creating a club flush draw but otherwise an insignificant card. I sincerely felt like I was ahead here, but I chose to check again. My opponent only had about 850 behind and the pot was over 1000. I ran through the scenarios in my head. If I push all-in, my opponents’ calling range mostly includes hands that have me beat. If I check, my opponent will probably bet out with a much wider range, hoping to push me off of the pot. His flop bet showed that pushing people off of the hand was his M.O., so checking was the best move…even though I would be willing to call if he pushed all-in. Put another way, his betting range was wider than his calling range, so I wanted to let him bet rather than give him an opportunity to call with a better hand or fold a loser.

To my surprise, Beavis bet only 500, leaving him 350 or so behind. I raised him all-in and he folded. Terrible play by Beavis, but if I bet out that river, he folds instantly and I don’t get that extra 500. Cherry!

I thought I was off to a good start in my WSOP Prop Bets, but then chip leader Phil Ivey in the Event 5, the $1000 rebuy, failed to cash and Bill Chen near-bubbled in, I believe, Event #4. I wish I could say the same for my competitors’ picks.

Fuel has already made the board for the most cash won (total), when Sorel Mizzi placed 68th out of 72 players for $8,103 in Event 5, the $1000 rebuy.

Ingoal has also made the board in the same event when Daniel Negreanu placed 22nd for $ 16,496.

UWannaBet also made the board in our final table/bracelet race. Michael Binger has final tabled the same event, now redubbed the $1000 Win Jordan’s Money Rebuy. He is sitting in second to last place via chipcount, but if he can pull it off, UWanna will get $10 instead of the $3 he gets for Binger’s final table appearance.

With only 24 spots paying, I am hoping that some of my guys can pull out a win in the $10,000 Mixed Game Championship, a mix of 2-7 Triple Draw, all five HORSE games, NLHE and PLO. Gus Hansen sits in second place with half of the field gone (now down to under 100 players), but as Ivey has taught us in the Rebuy Debacle of ’08, being the chip leader going into Day 2 does not guarantee even a cash. And to win anything with Hansen, I need him to win the whole shebang in my Most Bracelets bet with Ingoal. Another horse of mine, Johnny Chan, is in 4th place right now in the same event. He’d help my Most Cash bet with Fuel if he cashes, but he’ll cost me more money to Ingoal if he wins the damn thing. Stupid unintentional hedging. Let’s hope its Hansen over Chan in the end. Oh, and if that weren’t enough, Ivey is in 11th place and Bill Chen is somewhere in the top 30. Raymer, Ingoal’s pick for most Bracelets, is still in the event as well, under Chen, as is Erik Seidel (UWanna’s Final Table/Bracelet pick). I can’t wait for this one to pick up again at 3pm PST and can be followed via PokerNews HERE.

While reading the PokerNews coverage, I came across what I consider the funniest passage yet. This one is from reporter TassieDevil:

—

Get it? WONG? Not Wrong, but WONG!!!

Well, I thought it was funny.

Until next time, make mine poker!

Sometimes I get swept up in a random blog post idea or I can’t get around to describing in adequate detail a recent score, be it online or live. But I’d be remiss if I did not give a little bit of love to one of my favorite homegames in all of Brooklyn, the I Had Outs game.

The IHO girls decided to throw another tournament and through the mind-bending abilities of KJ and by virtue of the impressionable mind that is Dawn, the tournament was set up for in a heads-up format. Sixteen players would tussle to determine who would be the IHO HU Champion!

I’ll be the first to admit that playing with Dawn brings out the ham in me. We like to share a bit of back and forth banter, so it should surprise no one that I was in rare form upon arriving at her apartment. Brackets had already been set and I was to go against Karol, the less prolific writer at the IHO blog, in Round 1. The smack talk started before she arrived.

Talking smack in poker, particularly around friends, is a dangerous thing. I genuinely enjoy busting chops, and hopefully if you have been around me long enough, you’ll come to understand that my ball-busting is merely my way of communicating love. And it was with this in mind that I dropped a shitload of love on Karol.

“Karol decided to no-show at her own tournament when she saw she was against me in the first round.”

“I was going to sit out the first two rounds to give Karol a chance of winning.”

“I’m going all-in in the first five hands. Karol needs an equalizer.”

Speaking of equalizers, Dawn had mine in the fridge, a several-months-old 40 of Bud Light I had purchased the last time I was at an IHO game (which was probably around aught seven). I don’t know why, but I’ve developed a habit of drinking 40s at the IHO games. I think it started because I wanted cheap beer. It continued because, shit, I like 40s. Whatever the case, I slowly nursed it on the balconey as we got ready for Round 1!

The real problem with smack talk comes when the poker actually begins. Once you build up enough bullshitting steam, the ride can only end in two places: (1) vindication, in which case your opponent will see your earlier showboating as a dick move, or (2) failure, in which case everyone will have a good laugh at your misfortune but take it in stride while you lose money and pride. And really, this is the problem with friendly smack talk. Either I feel guilty for winning or I lose. Neither are ideal…

But then again, perhaps some of my smack talk helps me win. Lord knows it seemed to work at the IHO game. It wasn’t as though Karol did anything that I can directly relate to the smack, but the smack does set a mood that can be exploited.

If you read Dawn’s post at IHO, you’ll see this description of Karol and my match:

Our resident heads up specialist busted to Jordan in the first round. She wants me to add that she was ahead all but one time when the chips hit the middle. Jordan wants me to add “waaa.”

Well, I don’t know what Karol was smoking (but it was good…so good). Regardless, I saw the game slightly differently.

The first hand was a doozie. I wake up with KJo and I believe Karol bet out preflop from the button. I called. The flop was Jack-high and I checked. I think she checked as well. The turn was a blank and I bet out. She called. The river was a blank and I bet out big. She called again. I showed my KJ and she mucked her TT. I can’t blame her for the hand, since she was really only worried about me having one of the three Jacks in the deck and all that smack talk makes it such that people want to look you up. But that really set the tone for the game.

I had Karol on the ropes for a while when I finally got her all-in preflop. I help 88 to her K5o. She turned the King and doubled up, shortening my lead from 4000/1000 to 3000/2000, approximately.

I continued my aggressive attack until I saw that Karol was down to less than 1000 with blinds of 50/100. It was then that I chose to make a play, pushing all-in on her 100 blind, hoping she would fold to hold on to her other 700 or 800. She didn’t and called with my 78o vs. her Kx, with the x being some card under a 9. I think it may’ve been K5 again. Whatever the case, poker wins and so does Karol and she was once again within striking distance.

I had opened up a little lead of about 1000 chips (i.e., ~3000 to 2000) when we had the final hand of the game. I had 56 and Karol had AJ. I believe I bet preflop and she called. The flop was 34X. I saw an opportunity and bet. She pushed all-in and I considered the pot odds. I liked what I saw and called. I turned a 5, putting me in the lead with a baby pair and then rivered a 2 for my straight. Lemon for Karol! Lemonaid for me!

I’d like to write about how I then took the tournament by storm, but since the fiction department at HoP is closed for renovation, I’ll just give you the straight dope. I played Viet next, and he whooped my ass. I still maintain that HU NLHE requires a decent amount of luck in every match-up (over the long term, skill wins out). Viet seemed to be catching good, but more importantly, I wasn’t catching shit and had to fold to Viet’s re-raises. I have to give him a lot of credit, too. He played like a champ and when I eventually lost, after barely winning a hand, I simply asked him one favor: to corroborate my story that I let him win to get into the juicy cash game. The good man that he is, Viet complied, not that anyone believed us.

I mulled around outside with Ari for a bit before finally returning indoors for a NLHE cash game already in progress. I sat between Red, aka Everett and his friend. I mostly stayed out of hands, getting a feel for the table. The action was Cracktastic, as is the way with the IHO Crackhouse game. I folded best hands a couple of times to preflop action between two raising players, but overall, I was happy I kept out of the way.

Eventually, the HU tournament was down to the final 4 and the other busted players decided to jump into the cash game. We were too many, so it split into one table after I suggested a NLHE table and a Mixed Game Dealer’s Choice table. I, naturally, went with the Mixed Games.

The NLHE players vastly outnumbered the mixed game players, so Dawn, Alceste, KJ and I started our quiet little game at the kiddie table. I had first pick and went with 2-7 Triple Draw, mostly because drawing makes me giggle. Dawn shot dagger eyes at me before announcing that 2-7 Triple Draw is now renamed Give Alceste All of Your Money. I didn’t know the rules of this new variation and consequently kept most of my money, while taking a little off of my fellow mixed game donks. After my 2 oribits were done, it was Alceste’s turn to pick and he made a dick move by choosing A-5 Triple Draw.

I believe I’ve gone over this before, but here is a fun primer on the different Triple Draw variations. 2-7 and A-5 denote a lot. In 2-7 Triple Draw, the best possible hand is 23457, aka, duece to seven. It is a lowball game (you are trying to get the worst hand) where straights and flushes count against you. So, 23456 is a terrible hand. Aces are also considered high and only high, so A2346 is also a terrible hand (although don’t tell KJ). A-5 Triple Draw is also a lowball game, but the rules are slightly different. The nuts is A2345, aka ace to five. Straights and flushes don’t matter. If they did matter, it would be called A-6 Triple Draw (which indicates that the best possible hand is A2346). Aces are low in A-6 Triple Draw. If Aces were not low, the game would be 2-6 Triple Draw.

Confusing? Just remember that the numbers before the words “Triple Draw” denote the nuts. If Ace isn’t included, then Ace is high. If the cards are close enough to make a straight (i.e., A-5 or 2-6), then straights and flushes do not matter in the game. There you go. Enjoy!

Before that tangent I was poo-pooing Alceste for choosing a very tiny variation from his usual cash cow. For my dollar, I like to choose a very different game from one mixed game to the next, but since I love drawing, I went with the flow. I think I ended that session about even.

KJ was up next and decided to “invent” a game, NLHE Lowball. You are essentially playing Hold’em with the hope to get the worst possible hand. The biggest problem is that you could all play the board and it was impossible to tell where you were at unless you started off with 23o. As a result, there was very little action and we quickly finished the two orbits and agreed never to speak of it again.

Dawn was up next. She was still pouting about all of the Triple Draws and Made Up Games, so she went with her cash cow, Stud 8. Unfortunately, her cash cow had hoof & mouth disease and succinctly beat her into submission. I did my part, too.

In the first hand, I held JJ/5, with the J’s nicely hidden. Dawn had an Ace. We both saw 4th street along with KJ. I hit my Jack and Dawn paired an Ace. With Aces showing, she decided to raise the big bet amount, $2. Time for another explanatory break.

In limit Stud games at stakes of 1/2, the players can only bet $1 during the first two rounds of betting (3rd and 4th street). Thereafter, the bet raises to $2. HOWEVER, if a player pairs their two exposed cards on 4th street, they can opt to raise the big bet amount. We were supposed to be playing 2/4 limit, but due to slip ups, we accidentally played the first hand 1/2. In other words, I could’ve won twice the pot if one of the four of us paid attention. (NOTE: I have since heard from Chuck, a learned gentlemen, that the big bet can only be made in Stud Hi, so technically, we were wrong to allow Dawn to raise to $2 on the 4th Street. Thanks, Chuck.)

With my set of Jacks perfectly hidden, I called Dawn’s bet. It looked nuts, but that was the point. I didn’t want anyone to really think that I was acting logically. The turn was a low card for me and I raised Dawn’s bet again, saying, “I’m going low, so we are chopping anyway.” On 6th street, Dawn slowed down, so I bet out and she called. On the river, I was dealt the case Jack for quads. It checked to me, I bet, Dawn called, and I scooped the pot. Booya!

I can’t recall any other amazing hands. However, I continued to chip up during the next four orbits of Stud8 (after Dawn’s 2 orbits, the new player, Taiwan, chose Stud8 again. UGH!!). I announced to the table that I was leaving at 7:30pm to get home in time for the Big Game, but didn’t leave until 8pm. I was up $97 playing cash games, for a $57 profit on the day after the $40 HU tournament loss.

The subways were slow and I got home at 8:59. I got my computer on at 9:01 and didn’t even have the heart to check out the tournament I so narrowly missed.

Overall, it was a great time. Dawn was a gracious host, Karol was a kind competitor (she was nice enough to let me whoop some ass!), and I left with more money than I came with.

Next up, I have Mixed Game Madness at the Wall Street Game on Thursday. I’m once again on a Mixed Game kick, so I couldn’t be happier.

Until next time, make mine poker!

While playing in the Hoy last night (and taking the lowest paying money slot after some bad beats), I got to spend some table time with Surflexus, a long time blogger and friend. I try to write for those who don’t read the bajillion other poker blogs out there, so I should provide a tad bit of background.

Surflexus is one of the first bloggers I interacted with regularly. I think he was in one of my early challenges, but whatever the case, over the years (yes, I’ve been blogging for years), I came to appreciate a few things about Surflexus.

The first is that he is a fantastic poker player. He’s won a shiteload of blogger tournaments and does well away from this merry band of misfits, too. In fact, I once bought a piece of Surflexus’ action in some WSOP Circuit event and to nobody’s surprise, won some money when Surflexus cashed.

The second thing you ought to know about Surflexus is that he is consistent. This is not a guy who goes on a short tear for a month and then recedes into the background. For the length of time I’ve known him, he always seems to be winning, and when he is not, he is either smart, quiet or patient enough to never give off the impression of being a loser.

The third thing is that he is one of the nicest guys around. I got to spend some time with Surflexus at Okie-Vegas last year and he is not only an easy guy to get along with, but he is also a commendable human being. Hearing him talk about his family and just spending time with the lug was a downright pleasure.

But enough of the ole Surflexus love fest. I mention Surflexus only to provide this hand narrative from last night. Watch Surflexus extract as many chips as possible:

We are playing 5-handed in the Hoy, with blinds of 20/40. Surf already has 7900. Ridiculous! He is in the SB with AJ. ERT152 (blog?) with about 2300 chips in UTG+1, which is also the CO in our shortie table, raises to 80. I will let the kitten out of the bag and tell you he has KK. Surf makes what I consider to be the obvious and correct play and calls the min bet. Perhaps a raise would work here too, but why get committed with AJ when you (a) could miss the flop, (b) could be facing AK or AQ, or (c) could be facing a monster hand that will re-raise push you off of your hand before you get to see the cheap three-card flop.

The flop came down A65, rainbow. Surf checks. It’s the smart play. ERT bets 180 and Surf flat calls.

The turn is a 2c. It seems harmless enough, even though it now creates a club draw and potential straights. I have to admit, I don’t exactly know Surf’s thinking here (Surf?) but he chose to lead out this time, betting 180, the same amount that ERT bet on the flop. I really don’t want to taint Surf’s opinion (and hopefully comment) about this hand, but after seeing its effect, this is a great play. Surf has to assume one of two things: (1) he is ahead with his Ace to a lesser but likely adequate hand and ERT was continuation betting the flop, or (2) he is behind to a stronger Ace or even A6/A5 in a shorthanded game, in which case his bet is a blocking bet and also a tempting bet to re-raise for AK/AQ/A6/A5/66/55/AA. It’s especially tempting to make the re-raise with a superior hand if you fear the potential flush and straight possibilities.

ERT called the bet, which would indicate that it was cheap enough to call, even with his less than AJ hand. That basically gives Surf the green light.

The river was a Jack of hearts, giving Surf 2 pair. The pot is 820. Surf bets 1200…and gets the call. The overbet for value worked.

Now, maybe I’m just drinking the Kool-aid, but it seems to me that Surf played this hand to perfection. And THAT is why he has a spot in the High on Poker Poker Role Models Hall of Fame Aqueduct.

With my WSOP prop bets going, I’ve been devouring all things WSOP in a fervor not seen by me since 2005. But I really wouldn’t give two shits if it weren’t for the next two people getting their come-uppance HoP Appreciation Day style.

Really, let’s just do this one band-aid style and rip this bitch off.

Chip counts are ok, but when I want to feel like I’m really at the WSOP, I read Tao of Poker by Dr. Pauly. Frankly, this has been Pauly’s best year yet because he is free from the shackles of institutionalized poker media. Instead, he can write about the things that are actually interesting, like the mood in the room, the scene as people bust, the background stories on players and events, and the rumors going around the casino floor.

In fact, I was reading him today when I came across this nugget:

Phil Ivey made a 600K bet that either Allen Cunningham or Phil Ivey will win a bracelet this year. I wrote sometime back that I thought Allen Cunningham would win a bracelet this year. Finally… Phil Ivey and I agree on something.

Hmm…who else bet on Allen Cunningham and Phil Ivey to do well in this year’s WSOP? I can’t seem to remember….

If Pauly is the Yang of WSOP coverage, Change100 is the Yin. Change provides a second (and generally confirming) view of the festivities. Pauly and Change’s writings are very compatible, but they also are distinctive. I really can’t put my finger on it, other than to say that reading both of the blogs makes me feel like I am not only at the WSOP, but that I am one of the insiders.

So, I say to thee, YOU ARE APPRECIATED, SURFLEXUS, DR. PAULY, and CHANGE100. I thank you all.

Until next time, make mine poker!

I put out the call for WSOP prop bets on Friday and three people answered, Fuel55, Ingoal and UWannaBet. And since I doubt I will remember these prop bets a month from now, I thought I’d share and organize them here. Just as a reminder, all bets start with Event #3 and last throughout the WSOP.

Fuel 55

• Main Event Attendance Over/Under ($15.55): My pick is OVER 6218. My logic is that we will likely have more players than last year, which was the first post UIGEA drop. Now we know that the UIGEA is the tiger without teeth, so the fear is a lot less and online poker sites have hopefully resumed sending players en masse to the biggest game of the year. Other considerations will be discussed below.

• Pick 3 Total Most Cash Won ($8.25): Fuel chose Phil Hellmuth, Johnathon Little, and Sorel Mizzi. I chose Phil Ivey, Allen Cunningham, and Johnny Chan. I’ll admit something here. I am not a super knowledgeable guy when it comes to poker pros. I rarely watch poker on TV nowadays, and I don’t play in online stakes or care about online poker enough to know about up and coming online players. So, while I know Hellmuth and I have heard of Little and Mizzi, I couldn’t pick Little and Mizzi out of a line-up and I sure as hell can’t assess their abilities. What I can do is play the numbers game. Ivey is a consistent casher and is likely to play most, if not all, events due to his Full Tilt affiliation. He is also #14 in the most cash won at the WSOP, which is even more impressive, given his failure to win the Main Event and his young age. Allen Cunningham is a consistent performer at #4 in the most cash won category (29 cashes). He has been performing well of late, which hopefully will also carry through the WSOP. Johnny Chan has something to prove as he shoots for this record-breaking 12th bracelet. He is also #11 on the all time total cash list, after cashing in 36 events.

• Highest Main Event Finish (Best Single Finish) ($11.85)- Fuel chose Negreanu, Matusow and Kirk Morrison. I chose Cunningham again, Todd Brunson and John Juanda. I chose Cunningham because of his stellar performance two years ago and my confidence in his abilities in long-form live NLHE tournaments. He won an event in the end of 2007 and a WSOP Circuit Event in 2008. I chose Brunson as my dark horse. I don’t really have much reason. I know he is a good player and with some luck, I have confidence he could go deep. I chose Juanda because I am always impressed when I see him play. This was really just based on feel, since it is a real crapshoot. Anything can happen in a single tournament.

Ingoal

• Main Event Attendance Over/Under ($5)- I chose UNDER 7325. I chose the under for two reasons. The first is that it is a hedge bet. If I am off about my bet with Fuel, then I will win this bet to cover some of the cost. The other reason is that I sincerely believe we will have about 7200 players, a significant increase from last years ~6200, but not a huge increase. Even though the online sites will probably “send” more players, I am just as confident that a lot of those players will take the money and run instead of applying it to the Main Event.

• Most Bracelets Won Total ($10)- Ingoal chose Johnny Chan and Greg Raymer. I chose Gus Hansen and Patrik Antonius. If I really thought it out, I would’ve rejected this bet, since I picked Chan in my last bet. Even so, I figure that Chan will likely cash a lot without a bracelet. The fact that this bet is only about bracelets says a lot. Anything less than a win is useless. Chan and Raymer are a good team, but I decided to choose Hansen and Antonius because both seem to be on a heater. Gus took first in the Aussie Millions and Antonius

• Most Total Cash Won ($5): Ingoal chose Chris Ferguson and Daniel Negreanu. I chose Bill Chen and TJ Cloutier. This was a real lark for me. I know Bill Chen mostly from his mathlete book on poker. However, he also is a PokerStars pro, and therefore will probably be playing on their dime for most tournaments. He has cashed at the WSOP in a variety of different types of poker and won two events in 2006. I figure he is hungry for more wins, especially since it will help his book sales. TJ is just a work horse. I’m just choosing him with the hopes that he plays consistently.

You may notice that I chose all different people for the Total Cash Won bet with Ingoal, rather than sticking to players I chose in my bet with Fuel. This is purely for diversification purposes.

UWannaBet

• Main Event Attendance Over/Under ($10) – I chose OVER 6700. To be totally honest, UWannaBet did such a great job of choosing the line that I really couldn’t decide at first. I even considered rejecting the bet. When it was all said and done, though, I did the math and realized that between the other two O/U bets, if I picked OVER 6700, I was in the best shape to hit all three. So the sweet spot for me is anywhere between 6700 and 7385, a gap of 635 players. If I went with the Under, my ideal spot would’ve been between 6218 and 6700, which is less than 500 players for the big win. It all came down to math.

• Pick 3 Final Table/Bracelet Competitions ($3 per final table, $10 per bracelet): UWannaBet chose Eric Seidel, Michael Binger and Brandon Cantu. I chose Cunningham, Chan, and Joe Hachem. Hachem has been fairly consistent last two year and seems to shine during the WSOPs. Cunningham is my work horse, and I discussed Chan earlier. Originally, Unimpressed chose Antonius instead of Cantu, but since I already picked Antonius in another bet, he subbed in Cantu.

• Lime Throwing Championship, Pauly v. Otis ($5): I chose Pauly (first pick), leaving UWannaBet with Otis. This one seemed obvious to me. I couldn’t bet against my fellow New Yorker.

So, there you have it. My willy-nilly prop bets to keep the WSOP semi-interesting to me this year.

Until next time, make mine poker!