Several months ago, I made a post called “Which is True?” TripJax liked the idea and commented that he looked forward to future editions of the column. Well, I hope I didn’t make him wait too long. It’s a really simple concept. I’ll set forth two ideas that both appear true on their face but also appear to be in opposition. All you have to do is share your opinion. Let’s proceed:
Statement A:
There is no shame in going out late in a tournament on a near coin-toss.
Statement B:
You should not put your tournament life on the line on a mere coin-toss.
So, which is true, or if they are both true, how so? I believe that this may be a topic near and dear to the poker blogging community, and frankly, I don’t think the answer is very clearcut. There are days that I would profess A to be true and B to be false, and there are other days where I would say the opposite. So, I ask you, Which is True?
July 2nd, 2007 - 4:16 pm
I would vote for A. I think is virtually impossible to make it through a MTT without winning a coin toss. Given that fact, I will put my chips in late (key word here.. is late) in a tourney.
Maybe the better question is which side of the coin toss do you like to be?
The pair (as a small fav) or the overcards. Seems 50/50 to me… LOL.
I do know that when I have the pair, I sweat it out more so I guess I would have to say that I would rather have the over cards.
July 2nd, 2007 - 4:28 pm
Statement A is true if you are raiser or shortstacked in the blinds.
July 2nd, 2007 - 4:29 pm
Depends on stack size.
July 2nd, 2007 - 5:23 pm
It’s more than just stack size IMO. The biggest thing missing from these two statements is whether you are the one raising allin or rather the guy calling the allin.
Generally speaking, I think early in a tournament it is foolish to call an allin when you are fairly sure you are racing, unless the pot odds dictate that you do so due to the amount of money already in the pot at the time. Maybe if you believe honestly that your skill level is lesser than most of the other players in the tournament, but otherwise most decent poker players should be able to find a better spot than a 50-50 chance early to either double up or go home.
Similarly, I do not agree that it is ok to call off one’s chips on a likely race situation late in a tournament. If I’m at a final table or something close to that, the last thing I ever want to do is call off my chips on a race, not when the payouts are about to start or are increasing dramatically near the end of a tournament.
Raising allin when you believe you can get your opponent to fold, and are likely to be just a coin flip even if he does call your raise, is quite a different story. As long as you honestly believe you can elicit a fold, I think this kind of an allin raise is justifiable early, middle or late in a tournament.
Calling allin on likely races in mtts is for donkeys. Raising when you think you have a lot of fold equity, getting called and being in a race is normal good poker as far as I am concerned.
Nice post.
July 2nd, 2007 - 5:29 pm
Oooh, I like it already. We have two factors in play, stack size and whether you are the caller or raiser. Are there any other issues to think of? How about whether its a top-heavy tournament, with most money going to the top spots? Also, is it chipstack compared to the rest of the table, or compared to the blinds?
July 2nd, 2007 - 9:31 pm
Statement A is true if you’re raising.
Statement B is true for deep stack or large field or non-turbo tournaments. Turbo tournaments cause all-ins to be the correct play earlier in a tournament.
July 2nd, 2007 - 10:29 pm
It depends.
BSN
July 3rd, 2007 - 12:00 am
I think it is conditional based on the following:
1. Blinds relative to your stack
2. Chip counts of all players still in including yourself
3. If the blinds are still low enough to have playing room, then the only time I would go for a coin flip is if you feel the other players are of equal or greater skill than yourself and then only if you are up against a player you feel will call or make a play at a pot with less than the hand you are holding.