High On Poker

I stayed home from work sick today. This is what I got for my troubles:

Let’s start off with a little bit of a recap on my WSOP prop bets. Greg Raymer made another final table (the tournament isn’t over yet, either) in event #20, $1500 Seven Card Stud Hi/Lo. That’s Mr. Raymer’s second final table so far, both in Stud-variety games. I also have Mr. Phil Ivey in one prop bet, and as previously report, Mr. Ivey also made a final table. So far, I’ve only had three people “score” against me, Matty Eb’s Jesus Ferguson final tabled and early event, his other pick Negreanu final tabled an event recently, and Unimpressed’s Phil Hellmuth actually won his 11th bracelete. I knew he’d do it too, but I couldn’t turn down the action. Thankfully, Unimpressed only gets $5 for a win ($1 for a final table), the lowest amount for all of my bets. Whew! I wouldn’t have bet more against Phil anyway. Good stuff! Full tally, I’m up $5 against MeanHappy, down $5 against Unimpressed, up $10 against Bayne, and even against Matty Ebs. Sweet! Now if Carlos Mortensen will final table, I’ll be in great shape. He’s playing, right? He better be!

Meanwhile, I’ve fallen into the abyss of online poker again. Its pretty simple, really. The BBT sucked me back in, because I want to get into that freeroll. Since the freeroll consists of 1/2 of all of the rake paid, its like each BBT tournament is rake free…assuming you only play in 1/2 of the events. That’s especially nice, since I’ve been on a roll with the token tournaments, so usually I’m playing the Hoy on the cheap.

Last night, I decided to change things up and three-table. The first table was a PLO high MTT, which cost a $24+2 token. I actually played fairly well, in the 40s out of 68 or so people left out of 200+ when I had to make a move due to the high blinds. I busted, but shook it off relatively easy. I must admit to myself that I am NOT a PLO high player. I play most games, but PLO high is the worst for me. I started to do well when I became uber tight, which is really the best strategy (for me at least) in PLO. Unlike PLO8 (i.e., high/low), my range of hands in PLO is tiny. I try to stick with hands that involve 3 or more broadway cards (Ten through Ace), particularly in tournaments. Otherwise, I find myself fishing too much. In PLO8, I can deal with the fishing. The board analysis is a lot more complicated and that is where I believe I have my edge. In PLO, with only the high to worry about, that board-reading edge is diminished. Add in tournament donkeys and the drawing nature of Omaha games, and PLO is a lesson in futility, for me at least. Still, I just can’t seem to stay away from that damn tournament.

Otherwise, I played the $75 token frenzy, winning a token without breaking a sweat. I’ve done well in most of the token frenzies I’ve entered, mostly because its just fold fold fold, raise big, fold fold fold. Its actually a great game to two table. I make the Token Frenzy window as tiny as possible and leave it in the corner, checking for AQ, AK, or 99-AA.

The third game was a .10/.25 NL, $7.50 Cap game with GCox. I hadn’t played with G for a while, and I had some time before the aforementioned tourneys kicked off. So, I sat down with $15 and had an amazing time. As expected, there were a couple of complete donators at the table. It was like reading an open book. It didn’t hurt that I was catching cards, but these lemurs were just handing their money to me. A donk raises, I call out of position with 33. The flop has a 3, I check, he checks. The turn is an Ace. I bet, he raises, I push, he calls with A6! Easy money.

In general, though, when I play online, I’m mostly prone to playing non-hold’em cash games, like Limit O8 or Razz. Frankly, you just can’t find those games live. I also think that I have somewhat of an edge over the casual Razz or LO8 player, but beyond that, its just fun.

As for live poker, I contemplated heading to Salami’s tournament tonight, but I’m just not up for it (right now). I’m feeling pretty sick, like a cold or allergies. I’d love to take a day off tomorrow to recuperate, but with one of my coworkers leaving the firm on Friday, I’ll probably be needed to prepare for his exit. Ugh! I need a vacation.

Speaking of vacations, I have two amazing vacations coming up. The first is in two weeks. Wifey Kim and I are heading to San Juan, Puerto Rico. The best part is that her brother hooked us up with a sweet deal at the hotel. We’ll be staying in a $700+/nt room for $119/nt. Can’t beat that!

A few short weeks later, I’ll be changing in the sand and sun for dust and sun, and maybe some pebbles! That’s right, its time for Okie-Vegas, hosted by GCox. This will be my first in-person meeing with ole Coxy, a player who I met 2 years ago in a freeroll ran by Dr. Pauly. We got to reading each other’s blogs, IMing, playing SNGs, and eventually entering a variety of Challenge-type tournaments, hosted by yours truly. TripJax and a whole assortment of bloggers will be there as well. And on top of that all, I’m just excited to be in Oklahoma! I mean, really, Oklahoma! Don’t be jealous!

As for the Chess Challenge, I’m waiting on emails and buy-ins from more than a few players. Get them to me when you can. This is going to be a LONG process, so get comfortable, folks. Meanwhile, anyone and everyone continues to remind me that I suck at chess by promptly beating my ass.

Until next time, make mine poker!

In other news that isn’t really news at all but rather an attempt to remind myself that I actually have a bit of talent, I recently read that 95% of online poker players are actually losing players. From reading blogs, it would appear that most bloggers are in that elusive winning 5%. Even though I have not had the amount of success I would like, I take some solace in knowing that I have so far succeeded where 95% of people failed. It’s enough to bring a tear to my eye.

So, are you a Five Percenter? If so, congratulations, and welcome to the club.

This weekend was jam-packed with all sorts of gaming goodness. Let’s start off quickly with the Poker Blogger Chess Challenge. We have eight competitors ready to put up $10 each in a bracket-style tournament. I’ve already lost two unofficial matches against two of the competitors, Schaubs and MeanHappyGuy, so I’m clearly not doing this for the money. But I love me a challenge, so I’m ready, anxious and willing to have my ass handed to me by a fellow blogger. The full roster of players are:

1. HighOnPoker
2. MeanHappyGuy
3. Schaubs
4. CJ the Luckbox
5. YoSoyVeneno
6. Goat
7. Matty Ebs
8. Buddy Dank

If you are one of those listed players, please send me an email at HighOnPokr AT yahoo DOT commissioner. Remember, there is no E in HighOnPokr in that email address. Also, please send $10 to HighOnPoker with an E to my FullTilt account, as the prize pool. Once all of the emails and buy-ins have been received, we’ll start the tournament.

I have discovered that ChessHere.com has a tournament option. Rather than arrange individual matches, it may be smarter to simply set up the tournament through ChessHere.com. In that case, it will be a RoundRobin tournament, where each player will have 2 matches (one as black, one as white) against each other player. 1 point is awarded for a win, and 1/2 is awarded for a stalemate. All the details are listed AT THIS LINK.

Okay, enough about chess. Let’s move on to the next game of choice, Golf. I’m not a golfer. Hardly. But I did play a 9-hole course for the first time in 6+ years this weekend. This was only my second time playing an actual course, so I sucked. But I can see what all the hype is about. Golf is like poker in a lot of ways. Less than a traditional sport, golf seems to be a game of skill. There is also, from my newbie perspective, a lot of luck involved (although I’m sure its less so as you get more skilled…also like poker). And the beautiful thing is that, like poker, golf is just a great excuse to waste a day with friends (often getting wasted). That’s really all I have to say on the subject, other than I hope to play a lot more in the future.

And finally, poker. Ah, poker. After bubbling at Salami, I’ve been feeling good about my game. I won $70 last night at the Roose homegame, oddly sans Roose, who is right now in the Greek islands on his honeymoon. I played two games, making a deal to win $50 profit in the first game (essentially first place), and taking 2nd in the second game for another $20 profit. Everything clicked, too, much like the Salami game. In fact, I’m starting to come to the conclusion that I excel particularly in short-form live two or three table tournaments. When I say “short-form”, I mean fast blinds, i.e. tournaments expected to last a couple of hours only. I am able to adjust well to the blind levels, and play accordingly. Whatever the case, it has me wondering how these smaller tournaments have become my bread and butter. Hell, I won the two tournaments yesterday, bubbled at Salami, and before that, moneyed in three out of three tournaments in my buddy Greg’s home game. Even before that, I was on a great streak at the Roose homegames, and moneyed in 5 out of my last 8 Salami tournaments, with 2 of my losses on the bubble.

Say what you will, but I like those results. If nothing else, it gives me the feeling that I’m doing something right.

Once I get the $500 I’m withdrawing from online poker, I’m going to return to some of the cash game clubs. I heard a rumor that Good Luck Club was raided, but from posts I’ve seen, it’s still up and running (I heard the rumor weeks ago). Hell, I’m salivating already at the thought of some more easy money.

So, while I may really love games in any variety, in the end, it comes back to my first true gaming love. That’s right. Until next time, make mine poker!

Update: No, I am not running a Cribbage Challenge…but if one does happen to come together, let me know. All I need to do is learn the game. Anywho, its time for a quick update of my WSOP prop bets.

My main man (at least for today) Greg “Fossilman” Raymer wasn’t a flash in the pan. Nope. After winning the 2004 WSOP and having some nice finishes in 2005, he final tabled Event #14 $1500 Seven Card Stud. Thanks, Greg! That earns me $5 from Bayne and $5 from Matty Ebs (putting me $5 up against Bayne and even with Ebs after Ferguson final tabeled an early event). Thanks Greg!

I’ve been playing more online chess at ChessHere.com with MeanHappyGuy and Schaubs. I sorta suck, but I’m getting better all of the time. So, while I was doing my thing today, I was thinking that it might be interesting to do some sort of chess tournament between poker bloggers. I would ideally like to get 8 players, and set it up bracket-style. Each match would potentially take a very long time, thanks to ChessHere.com. At ChessHere.com, you make a move, and your opponent has 3 days to make his next move. For the tournament, we can shorten this to 36 hours or something similar, but realistically, the action happens somewhat faster. Hell, Schaubs and I each moved 5 or so times today. I’m feverishly pressing the Reload button as we speak waiting for him to fall into my clutches.

So, here is my thought. $10 tournament, top two spots pay $60 and $20. Each match-up plays two simultaneous matches (easy to do with ChessHere.com), and if it is a tie, they play two more matches, in sudden death format. In other words, whoever gets checkmate first in either one of those tiebreakers wins the round, and the other match is redundant. This will allow both players to play black and white evenly, AND prevent several days leading to a stalemate, requiring another sudden death round (although it still could happen).

So, the real question is, are enough people interested? If so, leave a comment. I’ll take the first 8, then take alternates from there until we hit 12 or 16. But let’s get to 8 first.

Until next time, make mine poker!

After receiving an email from Matty Ebs late yesterday, I started getting the urge for some live action. After my recent Vegas trip, my live poker bankroll was unceremoniously depleted to dangerously low levels. Ebs was heading to the Extra Big Bet club for their juicy 1/2 NL game, but until I could pull some money from my online poker accounts, I didn’t feel comfortable for the 1/2 game yet. I like to go to a club with at least 2x the max buy-in. That $600 at the club’s 1/2 NL game, and I would have to leave directly from work without my meager cash bankroll in hand. So I had to skip EBB club, but I couldn’t get another option out of my head, the Salami Club’s daily NL tournament.

I headed over to the club straight from work, glad that I had my sunglasses and iPod. I would be without my usual poker items, like my card caps or baseball cap, but I had resolved to get over the dependence on material things (not quite lucky charms, as much as comfort blankets), as long as I had the essentials. For me, sunglasses are crucial. I read someone who recently knocked the Internet players who show up for live poker with their sunglasses because it makes them look cool. That writer is and was woefully misinformed. The reality is that I use my glasses to hide where I’m looking. For the entirety of the evening, it proved highly useful.

The tournament structure recently changed from a $60 re-register tournament to a $60 buy-in, $40 unlimited rebuys for three levels, $40 add-on tournament. I’m glad to say that I never had to rebuy and by the add-on, I was the table chipleader with over 8.5k (starting stacks of 2.5k), so I decided to skip the add-on also. Normally, I always take the add-on, but I clearly didn’t need it in this group.

My game is perfectly tuned for the Salami tournament. The players are loose-aggressive gamblers. Not just loose. Not just loose-aggressive. Loose-aggressive GAMBLERS! For instance, two players in Hijack and Cutoff seats, got all-in after a 567 flop with two spades. They each held 34. Ostensibly, pushing all-in with the straight isn’t bad here. But what the hell were they doing playing 34o in the first place.

Frankly, I dominated the tournament, but went out on the bubble when the blinds were uber-high and I suffered a series of bad luck hands. But first, lets talk about my domination.

There were two hands that particularly exemplified how I was able to adjust perfectly to the game at hand. In one, I held AQo in one of the blinds when a player in MP, Al, made a large raise. When it folded to me, I decided to call. Al is a smart player, dangerous even, but he also plays these things too loose. Hell, he was one of the 34o players. Even though his raise was significant compared to our limited stacks, I figured that I could get paid off if I hit. I was slightly worried about facing a strong hand, but I was willing to see the flop against a player with such a wide range. The flop came down KQ4. I checked. He bet big. I pushed all-in. He thought for a moment and called…with QJ. Normally, I don’t check raise all-in with middle pair, top kicker, but at Salami, middle pair is gold!

In the second hand that exemplified my shear domination, I was in the SB with A8o. It folded to the button, a dorky guy who irks me for no particular reason. I always get the feeling that he just doesn’t get the game. He raised, and I didn’t fear him at all. Something just felt like he was stealing. The BB called as well. The flop came down with three low cards. I don’t remember what they were. It checked around. The turn was an Ace. I now had top pair, but a weak kicker. I checked and to my surprise, the BB bet out. The dork on the button folded. I flat called. On the river, I bet out small and the BB folded. I knew he didn’t have the Ace, but I was hoping to get a tad more money. Once again, I played slow, expecting that the table would give me money when I had decent hands. I also made a few choice big raises at times and got paid off, but I don’t recall any of those specifics. Whatever the case, it was like the table was throwing money at me.

When we got to the final table, I was the chipleader, with only two or so players near me in chips. Unfortunately, it was one of those days. I knocked out 10th and 9th, but then we got stuck. I went card dead at the wrong time and was bleeding antes and blinds. I was still the chipleader or close thereto, though, but no shortstacks were losing their many all-ins. It was taking forever, but I played a smart, tight game and soon we were down to the money bubble. The remaining players were me, Al to my left, an Arabic looking kid who couldn’t lose an all-in no matter how bad his cards were (his JT beat AK and QJ; his Q3 beat KT, and so on). To my immediate right was a kid who was clearly out of his league. He was still wet behind the ears, and I figured he or the Arab would go out next. Nope. Everyone seemed to double up or steal enough, and we were at four nearly even stacks, even though I still held the advantage. Al was on the shortstack in the BB when I got my first decent hand of the final table, 77. It folded to me. Blinds were 1000/2000 with 500 antes, so the pot was already big. I raised all-in, expecting Al to fold. Nope. He called, with TT. On the turn, I hit my 7. On the river, he hit his Ten. With Al as the shortstack and me as the bigstack, that brought us all to about even stacks. A few hands later, I am dealt QJ in the BB. The SB pushes all-in preflop, and I realize that he’s scared as shit. I had stolen his SB a couple of times when he merely called, and I got the feeling that he was fed up and looking to do his own stealing. QJ seemed good enough at the time, so I called. He flipped over J3…and flopped a 3. When we did the math, I was down to less than 3k in chips, with 1500/3000, 600 antes at the time. I was all-in in the SB in the next hand with 44. Al had A9, flopped the 9 and rivered the Ace.

It was tough going from top to the bottom, but I was actually pretty okay with it. I knew I played well, and I merely got unlucky toward the end. The 77 v. TT hand was unlucky because he happened to have such a superior and dominating hand, but that I can somewhat blame on myself. The QJ v. J3, however, was just bad luck, plain and simple. I couldn’t fault myself, and that was the one that took me out of the game, essentially.

Interestingly, I’ve moneyed or bubbled in 7 of my last 8 attempts in this tournament. Among that 7, there were only 2 bubble finishes. So, its definitely my own little fishing pond. In fact, I plan on returning weekly to build my bankroll. I already can’t wait for next week.

Until next time, make mine poker!

I decided to play the Mookie last night, in my quest to compete in 20 of the 40 Battle of the Poker Blogger events. I ended up out at 27th out of 51, just shy of the 25th place BBT points.

I really have to commend the creators of the BBT and the poker blogging community in general. When TripJax and I originally started the DADI tournaments, we merely wanted to play online poker against people we knew. We didn’t expect much, but when the turnout ballooned, largely thanks to pimping by AlCantHang, I realized how enjoyable it was being a part of the poker blogging community. Eventually, when the weekly Mookie, Hoy, WPBT, WWdn, and WWdn: Not proliferated, we were happy to shut down the monthly DADI game. It was a lot of work, coming up with a date, designing a banner, pimping it out on our respective blogs, and ultimately doing it every month. God bless Al, Mook, and Hoy for putting together the BBT. Not only does it provide a friendly, competitive atmosphere, but the BBT has done a lot more. It has strengthened the poker blogging community by making something worthwhile to play.

Specifically, I am amazed at the extras that have developed around the combinatin of the weekly Hoy, Mookie and Riverchasers events. The most amazing thing is the leaderboard. There had been leaderboards in the past, but the BBT improved on the concept drastically. First, the top five or six players get prizes, from cash to Nintendo Wiis. Second, the top 50 get entered into a freeroll at the end of the BBT. This is the most amazing part: The BBT actually convinced FullTilt to give back all of our tournament fees to put into that freeroll (actually, half get split amongst the top 3 spots, I think, and the other half goes to the freeroll). Well, god bless. Last night, I discovered that my 3rd place Hoy win catapulted me to 49th place. After missing out on the points last night, I worry that I might be out of the top 50. But I’ll guarantee that I’ll keep trying. After all, if you play in at least 20 of the 40 events, you get entered into the freeroll anyway. As of today, I’ve played in 13 events, so I’ve got a little ways to go with just (I think) 12 events left.

I also have to give some big ups to Buddy Dank. He recently started a live streaming radio show over the Internet that plays concurrent with the Mookie. Not only does he provide an interesting and ecclectic soundtrack, but he’ll pop in every couple of minutes to update the amount of players left, and particular bustouts. A paraphrase from my bust out last night: “And it looks like Hoy took out Jordan…from High on Poker…with…QQ against… Ace-something… Man, I just saw it too…” Okay. he still has a little ways to go, but the concept is there and this is only his second go-round. I find it particularly exciting because its a unique opportunity to play poker with a bunch of players all over the world while listening (potentially) to the same soundtrack. Its the Mookie Surround Sound experience, and I suggest you check it out.

But enough of that drivel. Let’s get to the poker. I saved three hands last night. The first fringes on the bet-sizing topic I’ve been discussing lately, but also addresses that all-too-common situation where there is money waiting for you on the table if you just choose to take it. The second and third hands address all-in plays, particularly in tournaments, that may appear, on their face, to be stupid, but actually are well-justified (or so I hope).

Let’s start with the hand showing how to take an orphaned pot. I’m rocking about 2160 in chips, in the BB with 47o. My table is full of people I don’t really know. I like that. It means that my default blogger table image (i.e., overly loose) doesn’t necessarily apply. Katie, with 1445, limps in MP, and the button, BrLK, limps as well. The SB folds and I check. Let’s take a minute. There is no reason for the SB to fold here. He only has to call 30 and with two limpers, the SB’s SB, and the BB already in the pot, that’s just a 30 call into a 210 pot. That’s incredible odds, and even if he has terrible cards, he may luck out and flop two pair, trips, or better. Plainly put, in my book you ONLY fold your SB if there is a raise ahead of you OR you have less than 10x the BB. But that’s not what this hand is about.

The flop was A66, with two clubs. I checked, and it checked around. There you have it. An orphaned pot. You might get concerned that someone is slowplaying an Ace or some other good cards. It’s definitely a possibility, but less of a possibility than most people think. Just watch the timing of your opponents. In this case, it was a very naturally timed check. Basically a “Nope, missed the flop. Next card” type of a check. I wish I could explain it more. I’m sure it has a lot to do with subconscious things. Whatever the case, I got the secure feeling that no one had the Ace.

The turn was an 8c, completing the flush draw. I had to think for a moment here. I was out of position, and someone could have checked to get a free card and make their flush. I had to make a decision here. The easy thing would be to check and give up the hand. But there was 210 in the pot, and both players seemed like they wanted nothing to do with it. I bet out 120, a small amount, for two reasons. (1) If one of the other players have the flush, an Ace, or a 6, they are going to call or raise, in which case, I go into my turtle shell and fold or check it down. 120 isn’t a lot, so the bet is worth it to me, even if I’m betting into the nuts. (2) It looks scary. In fact, it looks suspiciously like I hit the 6s and now want to get some action from them once everyone checked down my first slowplay on the flop. OR, it looks like I hit my flush and I’m trying to do whatever I can to build the pot. In case you’ve been taking notes, this is very similar to my thought-process in a lot of the bet-sizing hands. You want to find that sweetspot where you don’t mind the results. You either get info for cheap or win the pot for the right price. In this case, I had jack shit, but they both folded and I took down the pot.

The second and third hands just amuse me. In both cases, I look like a donkey at showdown. In fact, here are the holecards at showdown:

Hand #2
Me: JTs
TNW: AKo
jdpc: AQo

Hand #3
Me: 55
Kaellin:98h
Nomey: AA
Dionysus: ATs

In both instances, I’m playing from behind. In the first, JTs hardly seems like a pushable hand. In the second, while 55 is ahead of two of the players, with so many players in the hand and a player with AA, my hand was nothing to praise. To the casual observer, including the player at my table who is multitabling or surfing the web and just happen to see showdown, I look a bit donkish, but let’s look at the hands and see how I got all of my money (or in Hand #3, as much of my money as possible) into the pot as a dog.

In Hand #2, I had 1120 chips in a turbo Token race, with blinds of 120/240. If you do the math, that’s less than 5x the BB. To make matters worse, I was in the BB, so I had less than 4x the BB left behind. In these tourneys, I play very tight (being that 6 of 18 places pay, and the top 5 all get the same prize), hoping to double up before I get blinded out. I hadn’t gotten good cards, so I was at the point of desperation.

To my surprise, TNW pushed all0in for about 1500 from EP/MP, and jdcp with 1985 called. When it got to me, I had so much in the pot that folding would be stupid. I figured the players for high Aces, but even if I were wrong, I was really only a large dog to TT-AA. In fact, against AK and AQ, I’m over a 33% chance to win. Since I’m getting better than that in pot odds, its the right call. If both had a pair less than TT, I’m actually going to win more than 41% of the time. If one has AK and the other has an undercard, I’m about 32% to win. In other words, I really am only worried about TT and up, and while that is definitely a possibility, I could not allow myself to fold and be down to less than 4x the BB. Ironically, I fold most Aces, aside from AK and AQ here, because they are too likely dominated, but Jack Ten likely leaves me with two live cards. In the end, I flopped the flush draw and a ten and took down the pot.

The third hand is from the Mook, and was the reason why I ultimately lost the tournament. I had 2845 in chips, UTG+1 with 55, when Kaellin made his play, pushing 920 into the pot from UTG. In hindsight, I probably should’ve folded here, but I figured I could afford to gamble against highcards, and if anyone else calls, they are likely to check it down with me. I figured my investment was capped. However, Dionysus ended up pushing all-in in LP, and Nomey raised all-in to 1700 total from the BB. When it got back to me, there were suddenly three people all-in and I had to call 780 into the already huge pot of 4080. I felt obliged to call, especially since I’d have more chips to spare. In hindsight, I once again question if I should’ve let it go. At this point, its fairly clear that someone has an overpair, likely Nomey. That means that I’m drawing to a set. In the actual hand, I was only about 16% to win preflop. In fact, maybe someone can check the odds on this, but my loose calculations suggest that I was getting proper odds on the 780 into 4080 pot.

Now, odds should not be the end of all analysis in tournaments. However, they are worth checking, and when your stack size is small or, conversely, when its big enough to handle a loss, knowing your odds against likely holdings is important.

I hope this resonated with a few of you. These were odd hands to me last night. The last two particularly stuck in my craw. I’m still not 100% that these were the right plays, but looking back, I don’t think they were the wrong plays.

Thanks for reading.

Until next time, make mine poker!

It’s time for another round of The Leak. This time, I will merely offer a concise list of my WSOP prop bets, along with the standings now that five events have been completed. I’ll try to offer updates in the future as more events are completed.

Right now, I have six bets spread between four opponents. They fall into two categories: pick-a-player, and over/under Main Event registrations. For the pick-a-player bets, I will list my opponent’s players first. For the over/under bets, my opponent chose the number and I picked whether to go over or under. The information listed (over or under) is my bet.

MeanHappyGuy- Brandon Schaefer and Carl Olson vs. Carlos Mortensen and Phil Ivey ($5/final table, $15/bracelet). MeanHappy decided to go with two people he actually knew in person, whereas I went with Mortensen and Ivey for obvious reasons. Mortensen is always a force in tournament poker, and Ivey is extremely talented. My guess is that Mortensen and Ivey will both show up at a final table apiece.

Unimpressed- Phil Hellmuth and Joseph Hachem vs. Mortensen and James Van Alstyne ($1 final table, $5/bracelet). At first, I was going to reject this bet because I sincerely believe that Hellmuth is going to make a good run at an 11th bracelet, and I think Hachem is the real deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them win bracelets. On the other hand, I still like my Mortensen pick and I changed things up with Van Alstyne, a lesser known pro who is controlled and talented (at least from the few times I’ve seen him play-and win-on tv). I like the contrast of my two picks, and I’m hoping that Mortensen’s aggression, or alternatively Van Alstyne’s controlled play will be what is necessary to go far in these deep fields. But when its all said and done, this is The Leak for a reason, so I would not be surprised if I’m paying out Unimpressed on this one. However…

Under 7592. I think I got this one in the bag. No way to know for sure, but the online qualifiers are less than in years past and I believe that at least a good 10-20% (and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher) are going to just take the $10,000 buy-in money and run, now that the online sites can’t buy the players in directly. Unimpressed’s number suggests a 1,200 person drop from last year, but I expect something closer to a 2,000 to 2,500 drop. But what do I know?

Bayne- Jeff Madsen and Tim West vs. Mortensen and Raymer ($5/final table, $10/bracelet). This one was a bit odd. I had earlier chosen Madsen instead of Van Alstyne for my bet with Unimpressed before changing my pick. I reasoned that Madsen’s amazing success last year was going to be hard to repeat. We’ll see. Truthfully, I don’t know who Tim West is. But I just looked him up and he appears to be a 21-year-old online pro. In fact, I don’t even think he has any live cashes. Maybe Bayne knows something I don’t, but I wouldn’t put money on an online pro who is as yet unproven live. My picks speak for themselves. I added Raymer as my second player because I respect his game, and I sincerely believe that he will, eventually, win a second bracelet. I figured that his buy-ins are covered by PokerStars, so he’s also probably playing many events.

Matty Ebs- Ferguson and Negreanu vs. Mortensen and Raymer ($5/final table, $10/bracelet). This was another tricky one. Originally, Ebs wanted Ferguson and Ivey, but since I already had Ivey as my pick vs. MHG, I couldn’t accept the wager. I think I’m eating crow now anyway. Ferguson made the final table for the mixed Omaha/Stud Hi/Lo event (Event 5). But there is tons of time to turn it around.

Under 5840- This was much trickier. The smart move was to go for the over and hedge my over/under against Unimpressed. Alas, I’m not that smart. I was actually thinking, at the time, that 2005′s field was 2006′s. As a result, my calculations were off. But I still could get lucky here. Fucking Leaks!

Thanks for reading. I look forward to playing live poker again soon. I don’t think I have anything on the horizon, but that’s easy to fix.

Until next time, make mine poker!

I took 3rd last night in the Hoy, finally making the Hoy money board and winning approximately $180 for the price of a token earned with $8.80. Not a bad return. The Hoy games are doublestacked, which to me is a godsend. Very early on, I was playing horribly. As I type this, I am in Binghamton, NY, approximately 3 hours North of NYC. I’m here for work, and playing last night in my hotel room, I couldn’t get into the rhythm early. I was playing atrociously, calling preflop way too much, just to fold post-flop. Thankfully, I was able to turn things around when I got down to about 1200. From there on out, I played a lot tighter, got paid off on big hands (thanks, I am sure, to my general table image amongst bloggers), and once I had a healthy stack, went back to more complex plays.

Last week, I discussed the importance of bet-sizing. I have two hands that relied heavily on sizing to get my opponents to do what I wanted them to do.

After hitting 1200 in chips (down from the 3000 starting stack), I had worked my way back to 2986. I was UTG when I was dealt Aces. Generally, there is a very basic ploy to play Aces in early position in an aggressive table. You limp, expect to get a raise somewhere in there, and reraise. This will get more money into the pot and hopefully isolate you against one opponent. There is just one problem: most intelligent players know the move. It’s just so damn obvious. But I put on my level 3 thinking cap and decided that if it was so damn obvious, it would appear TOO obvious to this intelligent crowd, and I might just get a biter.

With that in mind, I made the crazy play of limping UTG with AA. Blinds were 50/100. It folds to CJ on the button and he raises to 400. He has 4k in chips. It folds to me and I raise to 1000. The sizing was very important here. By only raising to 1k total, I cover all possibilities. If he is bluffing with position, he may decide to just call the mere 600. If he has a strong hand, I have left myself almost 2k behind. For anyone in CJ’s position, this appears to be the perfect time to push all-in. Hell, even if he doesn’t have a great hand, he may do it to induce a fold. After all, I would still have a workable 2k stack, so a player in my position making the play with a medium pair like 88 or a vulnerable hand like AQ would probably fold here. Remember, by all appearances, I’m loose and willing to make crazy raises so either of those aforementioned hands are probably in my range according to CJ (I assume). I limped, but a limp re-raise against the button probably seems like a BS resteal ploy.

These were the things I hoped CJ was thinking. The size of my bet made it appear that I didn’t want to go all-in. I wanted to leave myself a folding out, with 2k in chips. I was playing poorly too up to this point, so I was using that to my advantage. CJ did push. I called. He showed TT and I doubled up.

Now, this is almost the exact opposite situation, where I size my bet small to win some easy money. I actually used this ploy at least 3 times in the course of the tournament, with this being the first one. The others were actually smarter and more profitable, because antes were in play, but this one will do as an illustrative tool.

I have over 8k, and I’m dealt A7o in the SB. The BB is lucko with 2315. When it folds to me, I min-raise the 100/200 blinds. He folds. I knew he would fold. So, why min raise? Doesn’t this induce a call. Sorta.

I should mention that I hadn’t been stealing a lot from the BB in this situation. I limped a couple of times, and he raised my limp at least once or twice. I folded my SB a bunch when facing earlier raises. For the most part though, I wasn’t stealing too much yet.

So why min raise? Because its scary. It basically screams that I’m begging for action. At that point, I’m only getting action if Lucko has a great hand. In that case, he’s likely to raise, and I fold and loose a tiny amount. If he has something marginal though, like A8 (which has me dominated) he’s going to fold, because my min raise appears so fishy. Keep in mind, the table was folding away, so it appeared as though I was desperate to get whatever action I could. Lucko folds and its easy money. Remember, I’m playing for all possibilities by making a min raise. I can get away for cheap if he raises, or I win when he has marginal to weak hands. I desperately don’t want a call, because he could easily pull ahead on the flop and I’m out of position.

There it is folks. Now, I best be going. Until next time, make mine poker!

As I’ve said more than once, one of the greatest things I love about poker is that it is a game. I like the gamesmanship, the strategy, the challenge between mental wits. Its the same reason my stoner buddies played Risk in college on random days instead of heading to class. Its the same reason why I’ll play a game of Monopoly or Scrabble anytime, anywhere. Its the same reason I’m trying to get people to play Chess online with me. Basically, I like games, and poker is the kingpin of them all because of its intricacies and the fact that my gaming can lead to financial gain.

So, when I was asked to review 888.com’s new Backgammon site, I was immediately interested. I had only played backgammon on a handful of occassions. In fact, I first learned the game on my way to Tahiti for my honeymoon. The airplane had a variety of games on the tv-like consoles at each seat, and I was curious about the game where many of today’s poker greats started including the Great Dane, Gus Hanson. What did I learn? That backgammon is a much more intricate game than the triangles and checker-like pieces suggested.

So, what about 888.com’s site? Simply put, it was easy. You don’t need to download the software. Instead, you can play on the Internet directly, removing the hastle of downloading software, installing software and updating software whenever you sign up. The registration process is easy. Just pick you name and password and you can go to Play Money games immediately.

That is where I got my proverbial ass handed to me repeatedly as I tried out various strategies, all of which turned out to stink. But that’s part of the fun (especially when still playing the Play Money games…experimentation in regular games may be a bit more expensive). I was able to try out new things and get a feel for the game with the convenience of online anonymity and a constant flow of players. The traffic seemed low, but not too low to get a game going within a few minutes of starting up. I didn’t play any cash games, either, admittedly, largely because of my lack of experience.

So, if you are interested in expanding your gaming experience and retain the financial rewards that come with poker, you can do a lot worse than online backgammon. And if you are interested in playing against yours truly, send me an email or comment. I’ll warn you now though, I still suck!